Triple-Dip Recession May Be Dodged Says Report

Britain is set to avoid the feared 'triple-dip' recession, according to a new survey.

Business confidence has now strengthened to the highest level since the second quarter of 2011, the ICAEW/Grant Thornton Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) report has suggested.

The BCM survey suggests GDP will expand by 0.4% in the first quarter of the year, after the 0.3% contraction in the last quarter of 2012.

ICAEW chief executive Michael Izza said: "There was a risk that, combined with the traditional January blues, the bad weather and some high profile retail collapses, talk of a triple-dip recession could become self-fulfilling.

"These results show that we are set to avoid a third period of technical recession, but no one should be complacent.

"There is only one way out of our economic malaise, and that's to increase our economic output. Such a task isn't going to be easy, or indeed quick."

Firms have seen a 1% increase in staff in the last year and plan to increase headcount by another 1.5% over the next 12 months.

One in 10 firms say the availability of management skills is a greater challenge than a year ago, suggesting that companies may struggle to recruit the right people to lead the recovery.

However, although business confidence appears to be widespread, it is most optimistic in Wales and the South East.

The report added that the construction sector, which has been hit hard in recent reporting periods, has renewed confidence along with IT and telecommunications.

Grant Thornton LLP chief executive Scott Barnes said: "Export growth rose slightly this quarter as the global economy picked up.

"This is coupled with an improvement in both profit and turnover growth, which companies expect to increase in the year ahead.

"Despite a rise in confidence though, companies' modest plans for capital investment are a worry as this is crucial to a strong and sustained recovery."

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RBS Told To Pay Libor Fine From Bonus Pot

Chancellor George Osborne wants any fine paid by the Royal Bank of Scotland over the Libor scandal to come out of its bankers' bonuses.

RBS, which is majority-owned by the taxpayer, is expected to agree a fine of £400-500m next week with US and British authorities.

It is accused of attempting to rig benchmark interest rates.

Sky's City Editor Mark Kleinman said: "A Treasury source has told Sky News that the money that the US regulators will fine RBS will have to come out of the bank's bonus pot.

Sky's Mark Kleinman said the demand is politically important

"It's very important politically, I think, for the Chancellor to be able to say that the taxpayer is not bearing the financial cost of misconduct by bankers who work for a company that is majority-owned by the taxpayer.

"The Treasury is obviously playing hardball on this, and we'll find out exactly how much RBS is going to be paying in fines in the coming days."

The Treasury expects the fines to be paid not just from the bonus pot for 2012 - likely to be around £250m - but money from future years' bonus pots as well.

RBS - which is 81% owned by taxpayers - is also looking to claw back up to £100m from pay deals previously awarded to executives in its investment bank.

The bank's remuneration committee, which is chaired by Penny Hughes, a non-executive director, is assessing plans for a "flat tax" on the pay packets of hundreds of directors and managing directors in its markets business.

The idea would involve about 15% of prior-year pay awards to the relevant individuals being clawed back, netting a total of as much as £100m.

"George Osborne is sending out a clear signal: 'You're paying for this, not us'," said Sky's Glen Oglaza.

"What the Treasury are saying is there won't be bonuses paid this year, but actually your bonuses are going to be clawed back not just this year but probably next year and the year after as well."

Barclays was fined £300m last year for its role in the scandal.

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Google Boss: China Is Prolific Computer Hacker

China operates the most "prolific and sophisticated" computer hacking operation in the world, according to Google chairman Eric Schmidt.

The Chinese are willing to use such underhand technology tactics for industrial espionage that it puts foreign firms at a disadvantage, Mr Schmidt says.

US firms will not retaliate because of tighter laws and a sense of "fair play", he claims.

The Google chief made his views clear in the pages of a book he has written, entitled The New Digital Age, which is out in April.

In it he writes that China is "the world's most active and enthusiastic filterer of information" and "the most sophisticated and prolific" hacker of foreign companies.

Mr Schmidt recently visited North Korea to urge more internet freedom

He continues: "The disparity between American and Chinese firms and their tactics will put both the government and the companies of the United States at a distinct disadvantage" because "the United States will not take the same path of digital corporate espionage, as its laws are much stricter (and better enforced) and because illicit competition violates the American sense of fair play.

"This is a difference in values as much as a legal one."

The book has been co-written with Jared Cohen, the director of Google's 'Ideas' division, and the early drafts have been seen by the Wall Street Journal.

In recent days it has emerged the Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News and the New York Times have all had their systems hacked by the Chinese.

Mr Schmidt visited North Korea last month, in an attempt to encourage the regime to allow its citizens greater access to mobile technology and the internet.

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Exclusive: Barclays Finance Chief Lucas Quits

By Mark Kleinman, City Editor

The group finance director of Barclays is to step down amid an ongoing probe by British regulators into a controversial £7bn capital-raising that allowed the bank to avoid the Government's clutches in 2008.

I can exclusively reveal that Chris Lucas, who has been Barclays' finance director for almost six years, will retire later this year.

The bank will announce Mr Lucas's decision to leave in a statement to the stock market on Monday. Headhunters have been appointed to identify his successor.

It was unclear on Sunday whether Mr Lucas will receive any form of payoff, although insiders described this as "extremely unlikely".

Including bonuses and deferred share awards, Mr Lucas earned almost £4m in each of the last two years.

He was one of several executives who waived an annual bonus for 2012 because of Barclays' involvement in the Libor scandal but may still be in line for an award under the bank's long-term incentive plan for last year.

The news of his retirement will come at an awkward time for Barclays and its chief executive Antony Jenkins, who is attempting to rehabilitate the bank's reputation in the aftermath of a series of scandals.

Barclays has been under investigation for several months by the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) and Financial Services Authority (FSA) for various disclosure issues related to its 2008 fundraisings.

Last week, the Financial Times reported that one of the angles being probed by the authorities was whether Barclays lent the money to Qatari investors which was then used to acquire Barclays shares.

Such an action would be illegal because it would have presented a potentially false impression of Barclays' financial health and attractiveness to outside investors.

There is no suggestion that Mr Lucas or any of the three others under investigation - Richard Boath, a senior investment banker who still works at the bank; Roger Jenkins, the former head of Barclays' lucrative tax-structuring operations; and John Varley, Barclays' former chief executive - are guilty of any wrongdoing, and insiders stressed that Mr Lucas's retirement was unconnected to the inquiries.

The individuals are being investigated by the FSA, while the SFO is looking at the bank.

In July last year, Barclays said in a statement: "The FSA is investigating the sufficiency of disclosure in relation to fees payable under certain commercial agreements and whether these may have related to Barclays capital raisings in June and November 2008. Barclays considers that it satisfied its disclosure obligations and confirms that it will co-operate fully with the FSA's investigation."

A series of share placings and fundraisings in 2008 allowed the bank to raise capital privately and avoid having to take money from the British taxpayer. That enabled Barclays to retain control of its strategy and the ability to continue paying big bonuses in a way which eluded both Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland.

As Barclays' finance director, Mr Lucas has been an architect of the bank's strategy during the last six years.

His earlier career included a long stint at PricewaterhouseCoopers, the accountancy firm, where for five years he was the partner responsible for auditing Barclays.

The FSA continues to have confidence in Mr Lucas's ability to do his job.

Mr Lucas's departure later this year will complete a clean sweep of Barclays' top management following its £290m fine for manipulating the interbank borrowing rate Libor last June.

Marcus Agius, the former chairman, was replaced by the City grandee Sir David Walker, while Bob Diamond, chief executive, was effectively forced out by regulators, with Mr Jenkins appointed as his successor. Jerry del Missier had only been chief operating officer for a few days when he also resigned over the Libor scandal.

It is unclear whether Barclays has already drawn up a list of either internal or external potential successors to Mr Lucas although one person close to the bank said it was possible that a replacement would be announced imminently.

Last week Mr Jenkins waived his 2012 bonus days after Sky News revealed that Sir John Sunderland, the chairman of Barclays' remuneration committee, had signalled to investors that the board wanted to award him a significant payout.

Mr Jenkins and Sir David will appear before the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards on Tuesday, when they are likely to be quizzed about the status of the probes into the 2008 capital-raisings, the bank's culture and the protracted mis-selling episodes which are blighting the balance sheets of the major UK banks.

Mr Jenkins will then present his strategy for Barclays alongside the bank's annual results on February 12.

Last month he told employees that they would have to abide by a strict new ethical code of conduct if they wanted a future at the company.

:: Barclays confirmed the two departures after the Sky News report and on Monday statements were released on behalf of the two executives.

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Amplats Results: Huge Loss After Mine Woes

A platinum miner in South Africa which delayed plans to lay off 14,000 workers has come under increasing pressure after profits plunged more than £100m.

Anglo American Platinum (Amplats) has posted a loss of $225m (£143m) for 2012 as it battles to keep the business alive.

The company reported a headline loss per share of 562 cents for the year, way off the profit of 1,365 cents reported in the previous year.

It is among several mining companies in South Africa grappling with higher expenses amid the worst industrial action the country has seen for decades.

A two-month illegal strike last autumn at its operations in Rustenburg, 70 miles northwest of Johannesburg, where police used rubber bullets as well as tear gas and stun grenades to dispel striking workers, has hit the company hard.

At the nearby Lonmin mine in Marikana, 34 striking workers died and a further 78 people were injured after police opened fire last August.

The walkouts by mineworkers cut its output by 8,675kg - reducing full year output by 8% to 62,370kg with refined production of 68.040kg 4% lower.

Last month, the firm announced its intentions to close and sell off several of its mines in a last-ditch attempt to return to profitability.

It has since agreed to postpone a decision on the cuts and delay the required 60-day consultation process by two weeks, and is engaged in negotiations with union leaders and the government to seek alternative solutions.

"The proposed portfolio review recommendations continue to require extensive consultation with government, organised labour and other stakeholders prior to implementation," said chief executive Chris Griffith, who made no mention of backtracking.

As well as having major implications for South Africa's turbulent labour relations, the plans to shed thousands of jobs has wider implications for the markets too.

As the world's largest manufacturer of platinum, Amplats produces 40% of global supply of the precious metal.

The company's plans to cut output by almost a fifth - or 11,340kg a year - would reduce its global output by 7%.

Analysts have said going back on its plans would unsettle investors more than the potential risk of further industrial strife.

Shares in Amplats have shed 21% of their value in the past year.

Violent illegal strikes in the platinum and gold industry claimed the lives of more than 50 people last year.

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Osborne: Bank Reforms Will Protect Taxpayer

Extracts From Osborne's Speech

Updated: 12:18pm UK, Monday 04 February 2013

As Chancellor George Osborne reveals new-ring-fencing regulation to prevent banks from using the "too big to fail" excuse, Sky News has access to the abridged text.

Think of some of the most important moments in your life.

When you bought your own home with a mortgage.

When you took the plunge and started your own business.

When you retired and drew on your pension.

One each of those occasions, you relied on the financial system.

You put your trust in financial firms at some of the most exciting and distressing times, moments in your life. And that's why it's so important to have that trust reciprocated. That is why it's so important to have a banking system that works for you.

Like all this Government's reform - to welfare, to the economy, to schools and to banking - we want to back aspiration and be on the side of those who want to work hard and get on.

Our principles are simple: if you do the right thing, government should support and help you, and remove the barriers in your way.

If you do the wrong thing, you should take responsibility for your actions.

And sadly, nowhere have these simple principles been broken more clearly and indefensibly than in our banking system over the last decade.

Irresponsible behaviour was rewarded, failure was bailed out, and the innocent - people who have nothing whatsoever to do with the banks - suffered.

For many, the financial crash was confirmation of what they felt about our society: that those who are only out for themselves get away with it; and those who work hard and play by the rules get punished.

That is why, five years on from that crash, people are still so angry.

And when people discover more about what went so wrong - the mis-selling of interest rate swaps to small firms who went bust as a result; the greed and corruption on the Libor trading floor - they get angrier still. I understand that anger. I feel it too.

But anger can be a negative, destructive thing if it is not channelled into change.

Let's take the anger we feel about the banks and turn it into change to build the banking system that works for us all.

2013 is the year when we re-set our banking system.

So the banks work for their customers - and not the other way round.

So that those who guard over the banks to keep our economy safe are the right people with the right weapons to do the job.

And so that when mistakes are made, it's the banks and not the taxpayer that picks up the bill.

First, we've got a brand new watchdog with new powers to keep our banks safe so they don't bring down the economy.

Second, we've got a new law to separate the branch on the high street from the dealing floor in the city to protect taxpayers when mistakes are made.

Third, we're going to start with the industry, changing the whole culture and ethics of the business, so they work for you.

Fourth, we're going to give customers the most powerful weapon of all: choice.

This year we're going to start separating the high street banking we all depend on from the City trading floor.

When the RBS failed, my predecessor Alistair Darling felt he had no option but to bail the entire thing out.

I want to make sure that the next time a Chancellor faces that decision they have a choice.

To keep the bank branches going, the cash machines operating, while letting the investment arm fail.

No more rewards for failure. No more too big to fail. No more taxpayers forking out for the mistakes of others.

The same rules for the banking business as any other business in a free market.

It won't mean banks won't make mistakes.

But it does mean that if they do, those parts of the banking system that are vital for families and businesses can continue without resort to the taxpayer.

Your high street bank will have different bosses from its investment bank.

Your high street bank will manage its own risks, but not the risks of the investment bank.

And the investment bank won't be able to use your savings to fund their inherently risky investments.

And my message to the banks is clear: if a bank flouts the rules, the regulator and the Treasury will have the power to break it up altogether - full separation, not just a ring fence.

We're not going to repeat the mistakes of the past.

In the jargon, we will "electrify the ring fence".

Banks working for their customers, not themselves.

Taxpayers' money protected.

The guardians of financial stability with the tools they need to keep us safe.

On all these fronts, we are making major changes.

A financial industry that is strong, successful and inspires the pride of all those who work for it.

That's what Government should be about - taking the big tough decisions because they're right for the long-term good of our country.

Our country has paid a higher price than any other major economy for what went so badly wrong in our banking system.

The anger people feel is very real.

Let's turn that anger from a force of destruction into a force for change.

Change that will give us a banking system that will work for us all.

In 2013, thanks to the changes we are making, that goal is in sight.0

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China: People's Daily Rejects US Hacking Claims

By Mark Stone, China Correspondent

The United States is "fanning fear of China" according to a front page article in China's People's Daily.

The newspaper, which is the mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Party, robustly rejected claims of probable state-sponsored hacking made last week by The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.

"America keeps labelling China as hackers, simply playing up the rhetoric of the 'China threat' in cyberspace, providing new justification for America's strategy of containing China," the front page article said.

It added: "Even those with little understanding of the internet know that hacking attacks are transnational and concealable.

"IP addresses simply do not constitute sufficient evidence to confirm the origins of hackers."

The article is on the bottom left of the People's Daily front page

The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal both announced last week that they had been victims of extensive cyber attacks.

The media outlets said evidence strongly suggested the hacking had originated in China and that there was evidence it was a "state-sponsored" attack.

The reports prompted a wider debate about China's alleged involvement in cyber crime.

It was revealed over the weekend that Google Chairman Eric Schmidt regards China as "the most sophisticated and prolific" hacker of foreign companies.

Writing in his new book, co-authored with Jared Cohen, Mr Schmidt said that China is "the world's most active and enthusiastic filterer of information".

Google's difficult history with China is well documented. Ever since the search engine was launched in China in 2006, it has been fighting censorship within the country.

China's Communist government has placed a nationwide block on certain websites, including Facebook and Twitter, while specific searches on Google and other search engines are routinely blocked if they are considered too sensitive.

Last year a US congressional report said Chinese state-backed groups with increasing levels of sophistication were attempting to breach US computer systems. The report called China "the most threatening actor in cyberspace".

The People's Daily article, which is written in the style of an editorial, says the US is using national security as a justification for its unfounded accusations.

America has long claimed China is guilty of commercial espionage.

The article also said, as the Chinese government did on Friday, that Chinese websites had been the victim of more attacks from US-based IP addresses than any other country but that "China did not draw simple inferences or hasty conclusions about the attack source".

According to the New York Times, hackers from China stole the corporate passwords of 53 of its employees shortly after the paper published an expose of China Premier Wen Jiabao's family fortune.

Neither the New York Times nor the Wall Street Journal explicitly accused the Chinese government of involvement.

The methods used to hack computer systems and the 'bouncing' of information through servers around the world mean it is often impossible to precisely identify an attacker.

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Nuclear Build: Centrica Pulls Out Of Project

Centrica has announced it will pull out of the nuclear reactor build programme, as a new report puts the clean-up cost of Sellafield at £67.5bn.

The announcement follows a similar decision by German-owned npower, leaving only French and Chinese bidders for the future programme.

Separately, the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) said the authority dealing with the country's nuclear legacy had not been able to show what value it was getting for the taxpayer.

It said the "enormous" legacy of nuclear waste at the Cumbria had been allowed to build up, with no indication of when the cost will stop rising, according to a new report.

The PAC also said it was not clear what wider economic benefits had been achieved from the "enormous" amount of public money spent at Sellafield - currently around £1.6bn a year.

The push for nuclear power received a setback after the Fukushima disaster

PAC chair Margaret Hodge said a solution to the problem of long-term storage of nuclear waste was as far away as ever following last week's decision by leaders of Cumbria County Council not to press ahead with a study for a possible site.

Successive governments had failed to get to grips with the "critical problem", Ms Hodge said, adding: "An enormous legacy of nuclear waste has been allowed to build up on the Sellafield site.

"The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) believes that its decommissioning plan is credible but it has not been sufficiently tested and uncertainties remain - not least around what precisely is in the waste that lies in the legacy ponds and silos.

"It is unclear how long it will take to deal with hazardous radioactive waste at Sellafield or how much it will cost the taxpayer. Of the 14 current major projects, 12 were behind schedule in the last year and five of those were over budget."

The NDA states on its website: "Our purpose is to deliver the decommissioning and clean-up of the UK's civil nuclear legacy in a safe and cost-effective manner, and where possible to accelerate programmes of work that reduce hazard.

"We aim to do this by introducing innovation and contractor expertise through a series of competitions."

In 2011 a Cabinet Office list showed that the then NDA boss Tony Fountain was the country's highest-paid quango executive with a pay package of more than £520,000, including a second home allowance of £85,937 and pension payments of £70,810.

Ms Hodge said taxpayers were not getting a good deal from the NDA's arrangement with international consortium Nuclear Management Partners on a plan to improve Sellafield Limited's management of the site.

"Last year the consortium was rewarded with £54m in fees, despite only two out of 14 major projects being on track," she said.

Significant geological surveys have taken place at Sellafield

The report said deadlines for cleaning up Sellafield had been missed, while total lifetime costs for decommissioning the site continued to rise each year, reaching £67.5bn.

"It is essential that the authority brings a real sense of urgency to its oversight of Sellafield so that the timetable for reducing risks does not slip further and costs do not continue to escalate year on year," it said.

It added: "Basic project management failings continue to cause delays and increase costs, while doubts remain over the robustness of the plan, in particular whether the Authority is progressing the development of the geological disposal facility as quickly as possible."

Ms Hodge added that Sellafield was an area of high unemployment, but said there should be a clearer ambition that the £1.6bn of public money being spent at the nuclear site each year was contributing to creating jobs in the region and elsewhere in the UK.

John Clarke, who started last April as CEO of the NDA on a base salary of £265,000, said: "Prior to the NDA's inception there was no credible lifetime plan for Sellafield and tough decisions about how we ultimately decommission the site had simply been put off for future generations to deal with.

"We are now facing up to those challenges and for the first time we have a proper plan in place for the decommissioning of Sellafield which lays out in detail programmes of work for every area of the site.

"Since the creation of the NDA in 2005, the financial investment at Sellafield has increased from £900m to over £1.5bn a year.

"Of course, not everything has gone smoothly on such a complex and highly-technical programme, and the report has rightly pointed to areas where we and the site need to do better."

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Lloyds Thrashes Out New CEO Bonus Scheme

By Mark Kleinman, City Editor

The boss of Lloyds Banking Group would receive multimillion pound bonuses only if the taxpayer's £17.5bn investment returns to the black, under plans being discussed by its board.

Sources tell me that the Lloyds remuneration committee is drawing up plans to pay Antonio Horta-Osorio an annual bonus for last year of approximately £1.5m, about two-thirds of the maximum possible payout.

And directors of the state-backed bank are in advanced talks about a new structure for rewarding Mr Horta-Osorio, who has run Lloyds since 2011.

The scheme, which I understand will be discussed with UK Financial Investments and other leading shareholders later this month, would see Mr Horta-Osorio awarded future bonuses only if the Lloyds share price closes above 73.6p on a to-be-agreed minimum number of trading days.

The 73.6p figure is widely-regarded as the level at which the Treasury bought into Lloyds in 2008 when it rescued HBOS, although it does not take account of the billions of pounds paid in fees by the bank to the Treasury for other forms of government support. If those fees are taken into account, the so-called 'in-price' falls to roughly 64p.

The proposal is designed to align Mr Horta-Osorio's financial interests more closely with those of taxpayers - and Lloyds directors hope that it will defuse a possible row over his remuneration.

Last year, Lloyds shares were among the best-performing in the FTSE-100 index and the European banking sector, despite the fact that it was forced to set aside billions of pounds more to compensate customers who were mis-sold payment protection insurance.

Mr Horta-Osorio is regarded by City investors as having done a capable job during the last year, accelerating lending to small businesses and substantially reducing customer complaints about the bank.

Insiders cautioned that final decisions have not yet been taken about the size of the bonus or the new structure and would not be until later this month. Lloyds reports its annual results on March 1, when it is expected by City analysts to announce a loss of more than £1bn for 2012.

If approved, the new bonus scheme would come into effect immediately and cover Mr Horta-Osorio's potential bonus for 2012, as well as subsequent annual awards.

It could also be extended to include other senior executives although such a move has not yet been discussed.

Under the terms of his contract, Mr Horta-Osorio is eligible for an annual bonus worth 225% of his £1.061m salary, equating to about £2.3m. He is also eligible for a long-term share award worth about £3m, subject to deferral periods, for each year of service.

People close to Lloyds pointed out that Mr Horta-Osorio's bonuses would be deferred for at least three years even if the bank's share price reached the Government's 'in-price' long before then.

Lloyds shares are trading at around 51.5p, giving it a market value of nearly £37bn.

Sir Win Bischoff, Lloyds' chairman, and Mr Horta-Osorio are expected to be quizzed about the latter's bonus when they appear before the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards later. Sir Win is likely to stress that no decisions have been taken.

The Lloyds boss and his counterpart at HSBC, Stuart Gulliver, could face pressure to relinquish any award following the decisions of his counterparts at Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland to waive their 2012 bonuses.

Lloyds declined to comment.

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Visa In Court Over Alleged Misuse Of Power

Credit card giant Visa is being sued by Australia's competition watchdog over alleged abuses of its power.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has launched legal proceedings against Visa, claiming it "misused its market power" to prevent the expansion of dynamic currency conversion (DCC) services.

DCC gives international cardholders the choice of completing a transaction in their home currency or in the local currency of the retail store or cash-machine.

The ACC alleges travellers to Australia, using a Visa payment card, have been given no option but to use Visa's currency conversion system in transactions at Australian cash points  since October 2007.

It claims Visa earned less revenue when a cardholder selected DCC services than when a cardholder used Visa's own currency conversion service.

It also alleges Visa "engaged in exclusive dealing" by supplying access to its payment network to Australian banks and in turn, retailers, on condition that they did not use rival currency conversion services.

Rod Sims, chairman of the regulator, said: "The alleged conduct by Visa gives rise to three concerns for the ACCC. First, it is alleged that travellers to Australia using a Visa payment card do not get to choose who does their currency conversion when withdrawing cash from an ATM. In particular, they are denied the ability to know the cost of transactions in their own currency at the time the transaction is made.

"Second, the ACCC alleges that Australian retailers were denied the opportunity to share in the revenue from processing DCC transactions at new merchant outlets.

"Finally, it is alleged that Australian suppliers of DCC services were, and continue to be, denied the opportunity to compete with Visa in relation to DCC services at ATMs."

Mr Sims added: "Pursuing companies who misuse their substantial market power, to the detriment of consumers and small businesses in particular, as is alleged against Visa in these proceedings, is an enforcement priority for the ACCC."

Visa has strongly rejected the allegations.

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